Retailers expect crowding of Q4 titles

Expected releases include Pirates, Shrek, Spider-Man

By Susanne Ault -- Video Business, 7/27/2007

Sony's Surf's Up swims to retail on Oct. 9.

JULY 27 | Walt Disney Studios Home Entertainment became the first to stake its claim in what’s expected to be the most crowded fourth quarter on record, choosing Dec. 4 for the DVD and Blu-ray Disc releases of Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End.

Following two straight quarters of falling DVD sales, studios and retailers are pinning their hopes on a fourth-quarter bounty to bring the year even with or ahead of 2006.

The industry is well positioned for a windfall. At least four titles—Pirates, Shrek the Third, Spider-Man 3 and Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix—are expected to have grossed more than $300 million each in theaters by the time their DVDs bow. Only one fourth-quarter 2006 title managed the same feat—Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest.

The challenge, at least for retailers, is they must manage all of this good fortune on shelves within a tight, three-month frame. At this point, retailers and wholesalers are not circling any January dates for major movies and are expecting anything with any measure of box-office success to street in the fourth quarter, as studios try to make up early-year declines.

“It’s becoming really back-loaded in the fourth quarter,” said Tom Kielty, senior VP of sales at VPD. “And it’s becoming weaker and weaker in the other months. Half of the box office in July is represented in one title, 300. For studios, it’s more and more how much business can you get out of those last three months of the year.”

Also announced for the fourth quarter is Sony Pictures Home Entertainment’s Surf’s Up on Oct. 9 (prebook Aug. 30; DVD and PSP $28.95, BD $38.95).

Mostly, studios continue to try out DVD release dates on retailers, while theatrical grosses continue to pile up.

Although none of the titles has been officially announced, retailers are tentatively filling in their release calendars with 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment’s Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer on Oct. 2; Paramount Home Entertainment’s Transformers on Oct. 16; Paramount/DreamWork’s Shrek the Third on Nov. 13; and Fox’s Live Free or Die Hard and Warner Home Video’s Ocean’s 13 on Nov. 20.

Retailers also expect many of the elite movies that have opened in theaters more recently, including New Line Home Entertainment’s Hairspray, Warner’s Harry Potter, Disney’s Ratatouille and Fox’s The Simpsons, on DVD before the end of the year.

Many of these titles also are expected on HD DVD and/or Blu-ray near or simultaneously with the standard-def versions.

Most studios declined to formally comment on these expected street dates, as there could be further jockeying and lineup changes. Overall, retail managers are questioning how the title onslaught will unfold.

“I am concerned, because last year we had too much product, and now, because DVD sales are down, [studios] will be shifting more of their titles into the fourth,” said Todd Zaganiacz, National Entertainment Buying Group president. “They might want to close out this year as high as they can. But if we are getting five or six titles in a week, then something will get lost.”

WaxWorks video president Kirk Kirkpatrick is grateful the DVD pipeline looks especially strong, with several established franchises in the mix. But he also believes retail clients feel somewhat overwhelmed.

“We are pleased that we are riding the wave of sequels—that is good for us. But there are titles bumping into each other,” Kirkpatrick said. “There is a case to be made that throwing all of this out at one time can dilute sales. January or February for new releases could make quite a splash.”

However, some retailers think shoppers will appreciate the slew of gift choices the DVDs present.

“People are not going to just be buying for themselves,” said Ian Leshin, Newbury Comics buyer. “They are buying for friends, cousins, their little brother. You will see a lot of multiple purchases.”

Disney will release the third film in the Pirates series in three versions: a one-disc set ($29.99 suggested retail price), a two-disc set ($34.99 SRP) and a two-disc Blu-ray edition ($35.99 SRP.) All prebook Oct. 9.

The two-disc sets will include many extras going behind-the-scenes on set and detailing pirate lore. Documentaries include “Keith & the Captain,” “Hoist the Colors: Masters of Design,” “Anatomy of a Scene: The Maelstrom,” “The Tale of the Multiple Jacks,” “Inside the Brethren Court,” “The Pirate Code: Revealed” and more, in addition to a blooper reel. The two-disc 75GB Blu-ray release will include all features on the standard DVD set remastered in high-definition plus BD-Java feature "Enter the Maelstrom," which gives an interactive peek at the scene.

Jennifer Netherby contributed

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