Marcy Magiera

Blu-ray should be cooking by Q4

When I was a teenager, my family was a Betamax family. Which was Ok for a while, when video stores carried both VHS and Beta for rent. As time went on, of course, we knew which store in town continued to carry Beta, then watched that selection shrink, until my Dad, a technophile of the time, finally gave in and bought a VHS player.

The point being, that there is a transition, rather than a full stop, to the end of a format war.

With Toshiba hoping to be out of the HD DVD business completely within a month, and Wal-Mart on track to wrap things up by June, HD DVD will likely not linger long. But I anticipate it will be merchandised, at least at some online retailers, for much of the rest of the year.

Despite Toshiba’s surrender, some key players will proceed as planned. Warner has HD DVD titles, including fan favorites like I Am Legend and Twister, slated to street through May. Paramount just announced that critical darlings Sweeney Todd and There Will Be Blood will come out on HD DVD in April. Neither Paramount nor Universal has given any indication when they will start releasing in Blu-ray, or what. In fact, Universal doesn’t have much of anything announced—for HD DVD, Blu-ray or standard DVD—past last week’s American Gangster, though retailers expect Oscar nominee Atonement in March. Given the limited replication capacity for BD discs, its unclear when these new players will even be able to get into the game.

But by later in the year the two studios ought to have some blockbusters to contribute to Blu-ray--like The Incredible Hulk and Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor from Universal and Cloverfield, Iron Man, the new Indiana Jones, Kung Fu Panda and the Scorsese/Stones collaboration Shine a Light from Paramount.

The HD DVD faithful rallied after Toshiba’s announcement that it would quit the format, snapping up discounted catalog titles, and making There Will Be Blood a hefty pre-order on Amazon. They’ve already got the players, and they’re going to collect as much content as possible before it disappears.

Which is not to say that any studio or retailer will actually be actively marketing HD DVD, except maybe to push some clearance sales. Advertising and promotional dollars will be spent exclusively in support of Blu.

The vast majority of consumers who have not yet bought a next-gen DVD player will be clear on the fact that there is just one choice – Blu. Whether they choose to buy or not is another matter, more tied to their satisfaction with standard DVD and the price of Blu-ray players than a mass movement to downloads.

Now is the moment Blu-ray’s been waiting for, with a clear field for its advance. You can be sure the studios are ready to jump on it. But expect it to be Q4 when the format really hits its stride.

Posted by Marcy Magiera on February 22, 2008 | Comments (1)