Blu-ray adoption slightly ahead of DVD's track

PHYSICAL: Study: High-def will never reach level of standard-definition

By Susanne Ault -- Video Business, 10/2/2009

OCT. 2 | PHYSICAL: Blu-ray Disc hardware penetration in the U.S. continues to run ahead of standard-definition DVD player adoption at similar points in the formats’ lifetimes, according to Futuresource research.

The two formats are nearly running neck and neck, with DVD slightly ahead in the fourth year after introduction if videogame consoles are not included. But with game consoles in the mix, Blu-ray is slightly ahead of DVD at the same point.

In 2002 and 2010, which Futuresource has determined as year five for DVD and Blu-ray, respectively, standard-def (including PlayStation 2s) reached 32.6% of households and high-def (including PlayStation 3s) will have reached 34.1%.

Although Blu-ray penetration steadily rises through 2013 (year eight) to 67.8%, according to Futuresource, it will never catch up to standard DVD players’ presence in homes at the same point in their lifecycles.

Rising digital entertainment options, such as video-on-demand and Web downloading, will keep Blu-ray from enjoying as much ultimate household penetration as standard DVD, however.

“We think that Blu-ray is going very well, considering the range of delivery platforms in this current environment compared to the early days of DVD,” said Jim Bottoms, managing director of Futuresource. Today, however, “online is stronger, there is VOD expansion, etc.”

He said that high-def players could speed up their progress into homes if Blu-ray Disc software pricing falls, especially for catalog titles.