3D Blu-ray discs to go on sale in 2011
PHYSICAL: Futuresource predicts 3D TVs in 10% of households by 2012
By Susanne Ault -- Video Business, 5/6/2009
MAY 6 | PHYSICAL: Advanced 3D at-home usage, comparable in quality to today’s theatrical experience, will be realized gradually, with the first commercial 3D Blu-ray Disc releases expected no sooner than 2011, according to Futuresource Consulting.
A key obstacle to 3D at-home adoption is the current lack of technology standards ensuring that content will reliably play on all available 3D display devices. In the short-term, between 2009 and 2011, advanced 3D projects will be geared primarily for theatrical release.
Yet manufacturers will ramping for-home use as they extend their launch of 3D-ready TV sets. By 2012, about 10% of U.S. households will be equipped to view 3D programming on TVs, according to Futuresource. It’s likely that there will be a limited amount of 3D content delivered via video-on-demand to 3D sets.
“With over 200 million new TVs sold across the globe every year, the potential [for 3D] is huge, but the industry needs to overcome some serious obstacles in order to kick start and fully realize the revenue streams,” said Sarah Carroll, director of continuous services at Futuresource. “Most notably, technical and standards issues still need to be resolved. … And the current economic climate makes new investment in production and distribution a challenge.”
Yet Futuresource is optimistic that 3D at home is achievable and predicts 3D Blu-ray releases will start in 2011. The company projects that by 2015, U.S. 3D TV household penetration will jump to about 70%.
“Our probability modeling shows the permeation phase will kick in from 2011, where, among other initiatives, we’ll see new 3D movie releases on Blu-ray, remasters of classic blockbusters like Star Wars, The Matrix and The Lord of the Rings,” said Jim Bottoms, managing director of corporate development at Futuresource. “By 2012, more than 10% of U.S. and Japanese homes will be 3D-enabled, and Western Europe won’t be too far behind with 6% household penetration. Moving forward, a new generation of videogame consoles will begin to emerge, fully embracing 3D technologies.”
