Blu-ray set-top sales to jump eightfold by 2012

Disc-player growth to outpace HDTVs, other electronics

By Danny King -- Video Business, 10/9/2008

OCT. 9 | Worldwide Blu-ray Disc set-top player unit sales will outpace most other consumer electronics items over the next four years as the high-definition disc machines gain popularity in the developing world while being bundled with HDTVs in the U.S., according to a report released this week.

Blu-ray player unit sales, not including Sony PlayStation 3 game consoles, will total about 5 million globally this year, up from about 800,000 Blu-ray players and 800,000 players for Toshiba's competing HD DVD format sold in 2007, according to Kurt Scherf, principal analyst at Dallas-based Parks Associates. Annual Blu-ray player unit sales will jump eightfold within four years to about 40 million, Scherf said.

Blu-ray player sales growth will outpace sales of total consumer electronics goods, which will have almost doubled to 413 million units between 2007 and 2012, as movie studios release more titles while the format gains adoption outside the U.S. and Western Europe. HDTV unit sales will have jumped almost 60% to 82 million units during that time, according to Scherf.

The forecast is consistent with many electronics and entertainment analysts who have said the victory of Sony's Blu-ray format over HD DVD earlier this year will cause a surge in demand starting this year. Last month, NPD Group unit DisplaySearch said Blu-ray player unit sales will triple this year, double next year and, by 2010, unseat PlayStation 3 as the most popular hardware source of the high-definition disc format.

"As a category, it's going to outpace a lot of other consumer electronics sales, because we see Blu-ray players complementing what's happening with HDTVs overall," said Scherf. He added that the expansion of titles from Hollywood movie studios available in Blu-ray might outweigh such hindering factors as the ability for customers to purchase upconverting standard DVD players for far less money than a Blu-ray machine.

U.S. revenue from Blu-ray disc sales and rentals, expected to approach $1 billion this year, will jump to $9.5 billion by 2012, trade group Entertainment Merchants Assn. said in June.

Sony, which has been trying to spur Blu-ray player sales in advance of the holiday season amid a sluggish economy, earlier this month cut the prices of some of its set-top machines by $100, with the price of its cheapest BD Live-enabled machine falling to $299.