GTA IV likely to break games record
Take-Two title may generate $1 billion by 2010
By Danny King -- Video Business, 4/17/2008
APRIL 17 | High gas prices certainly won’t hurt driving in Liberty City.
Grand Theft Auto IV, the action-adventure videogame from Take-Two Interactive Software’s Rockstar Games that takes place in that fictional locale, is expected to set records for both opening week and all-time sales when it’s released to the public April 29.
Take-Two is in line to sell 12 million units of Grand Theft Auto’s ninth installment by the end of the year and could eventually generate more than $1 billion in total revenue, according to Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter, who covers both Take-Two and No. 1 gaming retailer GameStop. Such sales would beat the U.S. record 9.3 million units sold of Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas since that title was released in fall 2004, according to NPD Group.
“Starting with GTA III, each game has captured the top spot in sales the year it was released,” said Anita Frazier, toy and videogames industry analyst for NPD, who said the title’s “M” for “mature” rating will do little to hurt demand. “This is the kind of title that will sell big numbers right out the gate.”
GTA IV will garner much of the expected dollar volume during the first week of sales, which could generate a first-week record of about $400 million in sales, VB sister publication Daily Variety reported this week, citing gaming industry experts’ analysis of pre-sales. Microsoft’s Halo 3 grossed a first-week record $300 million when it launched last October.
GTA IV will be a boon to chain stores such as GameStop, which are making concessions for the surge in demand by opening their doors at midnight that Monday night.
The demand for the title also mirrors a gaming industry that has surged as sales of DVDs and compact discs have either flattened or fallen. U.S. consumers bought $9.5 billion worth of videogames last year, up 28% from 2006, according to NPD Group.
Mammoth videogame releases Halo 3 and Guitar Hero III were widely considered competition for DVD at retail last fall and one reason the fourth quarter was soft for DVD. Perhaps for that reason, the biggest DVDs being released opposite GTA IV on April 29 are 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment’s 27 Dresses and New Line Home Entertainment’s The Golden Compass, both of which appeal to different audiences than the violent game.
Despite GTA IV’s huge expected sales, gamers who’ve waited more than three years for GTA’s next installment aren’t likely to pull back on other forms of entertainment such as DVDs and first-run movies, Pachter said.
“I don’t really believe that there are that many GTA players who won’t go to a movie for weeks,” Pachter said. “How many of them were going to a movie anyway?”
