NPD Group: Consumer intent to buy Blu-ray grows

By Susanne Ault -- Video Business, 3/14/2008

MARCH 14 | Consumers are increasingly primed to purchase Blu-ray Disc players, according to NPD Group research conducted around the time of the format’s formal victory.

For the week ended Feb. 20, coinciding with Toshiba’s official exit from the HD DVD business, 10.8% of NPD survey respondents said they would purchase a BD player in the next six months.

This marks the strongest BD intent results NPD has recorded since it started to track high-definition hardware adoption in July 2006. Those results also trump survey respondents’ intent to buy HD DVD players, which clock in at 8.8% for the same week, with the margin between BD and HD DVD the largest BD has enjoyed since NPD began tracking.

Through the first few weeks of February, BD intent has been edging up steadily. Over the same frame, HD DVD intent slid to its lowest point in several months, according to NPD.

In mid-January, NPD respondents indicated they were slightly more likely to buy HD DVD players (10.1%) than Blu-ray players (8.1%), even after Warner Bros. Entertainment announced it was turning its back on HD DVD. However, consumer intent for BD was climbing, as desire for HD DVD was flattening at that time.

Overall, consumers are not chomping at the bit for BD, admits Russ Crupnick, NPD VP/senior industry analyst of entertainment. But he believes it is notable that intent is rising at all during what is normally a soft season for consumer electronics purchases, which tend of be highest during the run-up to events such as the Super Bowl.

“This [intent hike] happened during a quiet part of the year after the Super Bowl, and there was bad weather for shopping” in parts of the U.S., said Crupnick. “So the fact that the number continues to go up is a good sign, and it has been a significant jump.”

Crupnick projects the current level of consumer intent-to-buy BD could translate into 2 million BD set-top unit sales over the next six months. That is based on the assumption that one-quarter of those 10.8% who say they intend to buy BD actually do.

Intent-to-buy advanced DVD players