NPD: Intent-to-buy Blu-ray grows

But overall consumer demand remains weak for both formats

By Susanne Ault -- Video Business, 2/8/2008

FEB. 8 | Consumers are expressing more desire to purchase Blu-ray Disc players following Warner Bros. Entertainment’s swing to back that format exclusively, according to the NPD Group. Meanwhile, the research firm reports that interest in HD DVD players is flattening.

Overall, there is weak demand for both BD and HD DVD set-tops. In the first two weeks of January, NPD’s surveys show that on average, less than 10% of respondents say they plan to buy a stand-alone player in either format in the next six months. NPD’s sample includes about 6,000 regular DVD buyers, starting at age 13.

However, NPD’s surveys do show diverging intent for BD and HD DVD. Late last year, the percentage of consumers intending to buy a BD player topped at around 6.3%, but that had risen to 8.1% of consumers by Jan. 16.

HD DVD intent to buy continues to top BD, which has been the case since NPD started reporting high-def hardware results in October. Yet, intent to buy BD is growing, while intent to buy HD is down from the period around Thanksgiving.

Russ Crupnick, VP and senior entertainment analyst at NPD, believes the abundance of products labeled high-definition, such as HDTVs, HD camcorders, etc., is likely working to falsely prop up some interest for the similarly sounding HD DVD. However, Toshiba’s recent price chops on players also might have helped the hardware stay on consumers’ radars at the same time that studio support for HD DVD has fallen.

“I think that the trend is more important than the absolute level,” said Crupnick. BD intent “is low, but trending up. And certainly these past two weeks are higher than any week we’ve seen dating all the way back to October.”

Realistically, consumers who say they will buy either format player will not necessarily wind up actually buying one, he adds, based on survey respondents’ historical tendency to exaggerate. But if just a quarter of the most recent 8.1% of pro-BD people actually do purchase, that would generate roughly 1.6 million in BD set-top sales over the next six months. That analysis is based on the 80 million DVD buying U.S. households normally represented in NPD sampling, said Crupnick.

At the end of 2007, about 1 million BD and HD DVD set-tops combined had been sold in the U.S., “so that would be a vast improvement of where we are now,” he said.

Consumer electronics retail buyer David Workman notes that although HD DVD set-tops continue to sell for retailers in 2008, BD stand-alones have racked up comparably more sales gains. In addition to Warner being a factor, he believes retailers bundling free BD players with same-branded HDTVs also has boosted the format.

“I think we have seen an uptick in the sale of BD players,” said Workman, executive director of the PRO Group. “There clearly was a momentum shift that accompanied the Warner announcement.”

Additionally, according to Warner Home Video worldwide president Ron Sanders, studio consumer sampling shows that 40% more of its respondents would consider buying a BD player if Warner decided to exclusively back the format. Conducted while Warner was still format-neutral, the survey did influence the studio’s decision to solely back BD.