Understanding and Solutions: Blu-ray could win format war

By Susanne Ault -- Video Business, 12/21/2007

DEC. 21 | Due to increasing pricing parity between Blu-ray and HD DVD hardware, research firm Understanding and Solutions believes there could be format war clarity in BD’s favor in 2008.

Historically, one main hurdle for consumer adoption of BD has been players that are hundreds of dollars more than HD DVD counterparts. Yet, starting with Black Friday retail competition, pricing on players from both formats have been on the slide, leading to a more even adoption playing field. That increasing pricing balance, combined with more exclusive studio support for BD, is leading Understanding and Solutions to give BD a clear edge next year.

“Blu-ray and HD DVD player prices have been falling since the summer, culminating in Toshiba’s loss-leading sub-$100 HD DVD player, available in the U.S. last month for a limited time,” said Jeremy Wills, an Understanding and Solutions consultant. “Price reductions in the U.S. have continued into December, with Blu-ray players dropping below $300 for the first time and HD DVD players below $200.”

This week, Circuit City was advertising a Toshiba HD DVD player and Sony Blu-ray player for $299 each. Samsung players also have recently been priced below $300.

If both formats do exist in 2011, HD DVD and Blu-ray players should both retail for below $100.

“Crucially,” added Wills, “Blu-ray benefits from stronger Hollywood studio support and represents a greater proportion of high-definition disc production volumes and disc sales. To date, Paramount’s move to sole support of HD DVD has failed to turn the market, despite the HD DVD exclusivity of key titles Transformers and Shrek the Third. Blu-ray still represented more than 70% of high-definition video sales in the U.S. during the week Transformers was released on HD DVD.”

Yet because of Paramount’s decision, Understanding and Solutions is stopping short of calling a clear victor. There is still lingering media attention focused on Paramount giving HD DVD a boost with its support.

Also, there is a chance another studio could switch allegiances, potentially helping either camp. The ongoing Writers Guild of America strike could create financial hardships for studios, as screenwriters have stopped working and caused the shutdown of a lot of TV and film productions. That could affect studio investment in high-definition, if there are changes in incoming revenues.

It’s widely understood that Paramount was influenced to become HD DVD exclusive because of millions of dollars in incentives from Toshiba. A studio hurting for money could be similarly persuaded to go one way or the other.

Additionally, the expense in producing titles in two different formats may eventually prove illogical for a dual-format supporter such as Warner Home Video.

With such persisting questions marks, Understanding and Solutions’ director Jim Bottoms sees the “[format] battle lasting longer” than previously thought.

Still, Bottoms sees BD in a strong position.

In some different analysis, research firm Screen Digest is predicting the possible end to the format war in 2008, but that is mainly predicated upon a studio deciding to switch sides.

“With lower [hardware] price points overall, the less of a difference there is between the formats, and price isn’t going to be a deal breaker to choose between them,” said Bottoms. “Prices cascading downward is overall better news for BD than for HD DVD. Unless there is an industry shift and a studio switches sides, I can’t see anything the HD DVD side can do to suddenly strengthen its hand.”

Elsewhere around the world, average player prices in Western Europe will be $275 and $475 for HD DVD and Blu-ray, respectively, by year’s end.

Consumers are increasingly being primed to purchase high-def set-tops, coinciding with the expanding installation base of high-def TVs. By the end of 2008, 34% of U.S. homes will have a high-def set, rising to 90% by 2011. That growth is slower in Europe, with 20% ownership by the end of the year, rising to 66% by 2011.