Blu-ray predicted to win format war

Forrester Research sticks by earlier forecast

By Jennifer Netherby -- Video Business, 10/10/2006

OCT. 10 | Forrester Research is again predicting that Blu-ray Disc will beat out HD DVD in the format war, but only after a long, drawn-out battle.

Forrester first predicted Blu-ray would be the high-definition disc winner in a report last October.

The research firm reaffirmed its position this month, saying that although HD DVD has had some early wins (making it to market first and garnering better reviews), Blu-ray will triumph because it has more studios, more content, more hardware support, higher capacity discs and the PlayStation 3.

Forrester also says video quality is most important to consumers, so the networking, extra interactivity and high-end audio offered standard on HD DVD won’t sway consumers toward that format.

Both HD DVD and Blu-ray have challenges to full consumer adoption, however.

Noting that most consumers with HDTVs don’t yet have high-def programming and are happy with DVD’s picture quality, Forrester researchers wrote, “It may be a tough sell to convince a critical mass of consumers to bother to upgrade their players or their libraries.”

The report says that player usability issues, such as slow start-up times and firmware upgrades, also will slow adoption.

That’s in addition to the format war, which Forrester bluntly dubs the “kiss of death,” writing “neither HD-DVD nor Blu-ray will flourish until consumers think they see a winner.”