It'll be an Xbox 360 holiday
New console expected to dominate seasonal sales
By George T. Chronis -- Video Business, 11/18/2005
NOV. 18 | Without premiere videogame franchises such as Halo 2 or Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas in the fourth-quarter release pipeline this year, expect most of the commotion at retail to be generated by the Nov. 22 launch of the Xbox 360.
Of course, there also is a strong list of titles expected to ring up sales in line with last year’s holiday period.
Year-to-date U.S. current-generation videogame software sales have grown 4.3% compared to the first nine months of 2004, according to NPD Funworld data. At worst, analysts predict game sales for the PlayStation 2, the first Xbox and GameCube to remain flat compared to last year’s fourth quarter.
As to which games have the best chance of surpassing the coveted 1 million-units mark this year, Harris Nesbitt senior VP Edward Williams laid out a list of eight titles at the research firm’s Media & Entertainment Conference this month.
He listed Call of Duty 2 (PS2, Xbox, 360, PC) and Tony Hawk’s American Wasteland (PS2, Xbox, GC, DS, GBA, PSP), both from Activision; Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (PS2, Xbox, GC, PC, 360, GBA, PSP), Madden NFL 06 (PS2, Xbox, GC, PC, 360, DS, PSP), NBA Live 06 (PS2, Xbox, GC) and Need For Speed: Most Wanted (PS2, Xbox, GC, 360), all from Electronic Arts; Star Wars: Battlefront II (PS2, Xbox) from LucasArts; and King Kong (PS2, Xbox, GC, PC, 360, GBA, DS, PSP) from Ubisoft.
The best-selling games of the year are usually sold during the holidays. Videogame sales from September through December typically account for 55% to 60% of annual software sell-through dollars. The month of December often represents 30% of game sales.
“The Top 5 and Top 10 games can account for between 15% and 20% and 20% to 25%, respectively, of dollars for the year, depending on the strength of the release schedule,” Williams said. “In 2004, with the release of Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas (PS2) and Halo 2 (Xbox), the Top 5 titles for each of those platforms garnered 18% and 21%, respectively. For 2005, we do not expect any one title to achieve the kind of sell-through success that Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas and Halo 2 experienced last year.”
During November 2004 alone, 3.3 million copies of Halo 2 and 1.5 million copies of Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas were sold.
Through September, Williams said slightly more than 3.5% of PS2, Xbox and GameCube retail SKUs were responsible for more than 30% of the aggregate sell-through dollars.
