Blu-ray wins, no war
By Scott Hettrick -- Video Business, 10/7/2005
OCT. 7 | What’s all the fuss about a format war? There will be no format war.
Blu-ray Disc will win.
Or, at least, it is now clearly Blu-ray’s battle to lose. And if Blu-ray were to lose the battle, it would become a war of massive destruction in which everyone loses.
Even top studio executives at the nearly lame-duck HD DVD camp are quietly conceding the victory to Blu-ray.
That is, assuming Blu-ray can deliver on its promises of technology specs and launch timing.
That’s a big if. But HD people are acknowledging that there is no way Blu-ray is not coming to market as part of the PlayStation 3 and set-top boxes. Given that no one wants two formats in the market, HD folk are now just trying to get as much built into the Blu-ray format as they can.
Using the threat of what one high-ranking studio executive described as “the nuclear option” of following through with a launch of HD DVD, some players in that camp have been negotiating diligently with Blu-ray for some time now to get that format to address issues relating to copy-protection, interactivity and the interactive layer, compression technology and replication technologies, among others.
Unlike the first go-round with DVD in which the two competing formats developed a compromise solution that integrated physical components of both platforms into a new hybrid format, there will be no such blended disc this time.
It will be Blu-ray.
HD studios are using their announcements about publishing in both formats—or pending announcements (Warner is expected to announce by the end of the month if it gets what it wants from Blu-ray; Universal is ready to do the same)—as a kind of good-faith
gesture that the studios are prepared to support the competing platform exclusively so long as there is serious compromise on issues relating to the best interests of Hollywood, not just video games, including but not limited to the so-called “wish list.”
Make no mistake, there is still months of political jockeying, mudslinging and positioning to do before this is all over.
But in the eyes of some, the financially and product-challenged Sony is betting the farm on Blu-ray and maybe even over-extending itself on many fronts in a seemingly all-or-nothing strategy.
While Blu-ray could be the industry’s savior, by forcing the format on reluctant partners, Sony is making everyone a little nervous.
The most dangerous foe, especially one who is your ally, can be the one who has nothing to lose.
Nevermind titles you need to order for December and January.
You’re way behind. And Fox is way ahead.
A recent promotional mailing from Fox integrated marketing lists the following tentative 2006 DVD schedule for movies that have yet to open in theaters: Cheaper By the Dozen 2 (spring); My Friend Flicka (summer); Ice Age 2: The Meltdown (3Q); X-Men 3 (Q3/Q4); Garfield 2: The Movie (Q4); Eragon (holidays); and Die Hard 4 (TBD), as well as DVD premieres Like Mike 2: Street Ball (May) and Doctor Dolittle 3: The Daughter Is In (June).
A spokeswoman for Fox integrated marketing says the mailing is designed to get DVD more on the radar with potential promotional partners and brands.
